Wednesday, December 10, 2008

What's the point...

...of living in Texas today, if I get these kinds of e-mails from my brother:

"It’s 29 in Dallas and 65 in Boston. Take that, suckers."

I'm boycotting winter. Where's this so-called "global warming" when we need it?

11 comments:

Greg said...

It's only "global warming" on hot days. On good/cool days, it's "global climate change." Mere facts can't be allowed to interfere with a crusade...

Heather Marie said...

GEEZ! It's 77 today in Charleston, SC! Crazy! Good thing I'm going to NYC this weekend! I don't like when it's warm in the winter! Yuck! Unless I'm in Florida of course! hehe

Chris said...

Ya don't think that 65 in Boston on December 10 is maybe a symptom of global warming? The 29 here isn't the unusual part...

Darlana said...

Well we haven't seen any global warming here (Saskatchewan Canada) It's 0 today and going to be -17 on Saturday! I could handle a little global warming!

One thing is for sure, I get a white Christmas!

Mandy and Jack said...

Darlana, I don't think -17 is worth the white Christmas.

And Chris, it was also 65 degrees in Boston on December 10, 1907. Was that global warming too?

Chris said...

Wow...had to go all the way back to 1907 to find an equal temperature for a December 10. :)

Using data about every December 10 since 1946 (as far back as the Farmer's Almanac website goes), we get these little tidbits about December 10ths in Boston (specifically Logan Airport readings):

Between 1946 and 1979 inclusive, there were 4 December 10ths of 50.00 degrees or higher (1946 - 62.1, 1953 - 62.1, 1966 - 57.9, 1973 - 57.9)

Between 1980 and 2008 inclusive, there were 8 December 10ths that were 50 degrees or higher (1987 - 57.9, 1990 - 53.1, 1991 - 61.0, 1993 - 53.1, 1999 - 55.4, 2004 - 51.8, 2006 - 51.8, 2008 - 62.6)

What's this prove? Nothing. Looking at data for a single day, even 63 years worth, is not statistically significant. Finding an outlier is no big trick (they're the "exceptions that prove the rule" in statistics). There is a broad trend line that could be drawn which would suggest that on average, Boston has more warm December 10ths than it used to, but this isn't really science, it's screwing around with numbers. If I played with the decade averages, the 1980s were the second coldest December 10ths in the sample period (coldest was the 1960s). But the 1990s were the warmest, and the 2000s were the third warmest (second warmest goes to the 1970s)

I'm not trying to convert you ...I'm skeptical of global warming myself...but I can't resist a good argument.

Shane said...

Those statistics are made up.

Chris said...

I got the data from http://www.almanac.com/weatherhistory/oneday.php?number=725090&wban=14739&day=10&month=12&year=2008&searchtype=zip, all I did was change the year 62 times.

Why do you say the stats are made up?

Shane said...

Because they came from the internet, which is essentially a big conspiracy.

Chris said...

Including, by your rules, your objections, which also come from the internet and are thus, suspect. :) Merry Christmas!

Shane said...

Christmas is also a conspiracy. Along with puppies.